1. Who owns
what (State; Private; Mix; Ethnic Majority/Minority; Foreign entities;
etc.)?
2. Who are
the actual movers and shakers
(individual liberty and national dependency
issue)?
3. How is
wealth distributed, if any (equality might not be the critical issue,
but social efficiency is)?
4. What type
of relationship takes place between market makers, policy makers, policy
executives, and the financial institutions? Is there a regulatory/judicial
system to observe, regulate, and control this relationship? If there is,
how that system is structured and who appoint its executives?
5. Can contractual
and Judicial matters be resolved and enforced efficiently (risk and
security issues)?
Some additional
observations might worth our attention:
1. There is
no
real market-based economy in the modern era.
2. For example
every economic transaction in the US is regulated in one way or
another, and same goes for almost all western economies.
3. Regulated
market-based economies (most of the 1st world economies) required
stable
and efficient political, judicial and social institutions (note that stable
and efficient system could still be unjust and discriminatory). It
also required skillful political and managerial leadership. Although
Egypt has no shortage of skills, the other pre-requisites are not that
handy.
4. Egypt has
a colorful history when it comes to the ownership issue. Egypt
wealth
has changed strange hands over the years. For example, numerous studies
(see Robert Mabro*of
Cambridge Univ., and Anas Mustafa Kamel and others on the
subject) suggest that the majority of the country wealth was owned by non-Egyptians
before 1952 (most of the country lands were mortgaged/in-debt to foreign
banks).
That history has its roots in the 19th century. So, one
hope that Egypt by now as some experiences handling the influence of foreign
ownership(!).
5.
Egyptian economy is changing in a very fast pace, and the social fabric
of the country is reacting. The structure and performance of the country
political institutions are not up to such complicated fast pace dynamics.
Something eventually has to give, and that is probably the only good news.
The last 20 years have proven to me that radical social and political upheaval
is not going to happen. The country has no taste for that. But rather,
the changes in the structure of the economy (ownership/decision/distribution/etc.)
and its increasing ties to the global economy will gradually force more
rational political and social changes.
6. Egypt political
and social elite/junta (new or old) does not want to loose power
(would you?). But the economy (state and private, official and non-official)
is (slowly but surely) getting entangled with the global economy.
This junta then has an interesting dilemma, as they try to keep their power
and privileges while competing with a world that is more efficient, faster,
communicative and disciplined. It is interesting, for example, to
observe the debate about Al-Gezirah TV station, and the on-going
war between Arab governments to domesticate such phenomena. The obvious
inconsistency and hesitancy of the Egyptian government over many recent
issues (privatization, democracy, freedom of media and press, new political
parties, etc.) is not for lack of vision but for the compelling duality
of conflicting interests. Again, they can't have full political control
and at the same time create a prosper economy (a pre-requisite for long-term
survival). |