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EPISODE
NINETEEN
THE
OCTOBER ARMS DEAL
But
first we had to settle a more fundamental question :what sort of battle?
July
6-7, 1971: I was visiting naval units and bases in Alexandria,
accompanied by several members of the Armed Forces Supreme Council. The
full Armed Forces Supreme Council was to meet in Cairo on July
8, so I judged it convenient for those of us in Alexandria to
have a preliminary session. On July 7 we met in the Alexandria naval
college. I outlined my views on our realistic offensive options in the
light of the limitations imposed on us by our weakness in the air. A good
number of those present seemed convinced.
July
8: The full Armed Forces Supreme
Council meeting. War Minister Sadiq in the chair. The
first clash between Sadiq and myself over our ideas
for Egypt's offensive. Our rival views I have outlined in Chapter
Two. General Sadiq's thinking, as he argued it at the
meeting, was: "Let us define the optimum possible goal, whether or not
we have the means. Then let us concentrate on gaining the means to achieve
that goal." I countered that this might befit a superpower, or a country
with unlimited support and guarantees from a superpower. We had neither.
We could not control the means. So we had to act within the means we could
reasonably expect to have.
The
military decision hinged upon a political judgment, in other words. What
arms could we expect from the Soviets?
There
was no vote at the meeting. Sadiq decided that a modest
offensive with the passes as our final target would be prepared and a listing
of necessary weapons and equipment was to be calculated by those present
This was actually the birth of Operation 41. Sadiq
and I continued our discussion, however, outside the council meeting until
I was able to convince him to proceed with The High Minarets, somewhere
on or about July 15. Which explains why the ultimate outcome of
this and subsequent meetings was, as I described in Chapter Two (see
Episodes Four: OPERATION 41 AND THE HIGH MINARETS),
a secret compromise: Operation 41, the drive to cross the canal
and seize the Sinai passes in a single operation, to be drawn up in collaboration
with our Soviet advisers. Meanwhile The High Minarets, limited to
holding a bridgehead across the canal to be planned in extreme secrecy
and based upon our estimate of the very minimum equipment we could expect
to have. As the planning of Operation 41 reached a crucial point,
however, another aspect of superpower politics intruded.
The
first week of September:
The Randopolo Affair. Our intelligence services had uncovered an
American espionage ring. The principals were Tanashi Randopolo,
an Egyptian of Greek parentage, and a Miss Swain Harris of the United
States mission in Cairo.
Randopolo
gave a complete confession, naming his sources among the Russians on Ganaklis
air base outside Alexandria. His good friend Mr. Belekov
had served there from May 1969 to March 1971 and then sent his replacement,
Mr. "Victor" with a letter of introduction to Randopolo.
Victor's
assistant, Mr. "Yuri," had been equally close. Victor and
Yuri
had been to Randopolo's for dinner; Randopolo
dined at the
base so often he had the run of the Russian's private quarters. He had
even been in the audience for a Soviet instructional film warning
against spies. He had been all through the new concrete blast hangars,
the first of their kind in the world. And he was quite au fait with
base gossip: the fact that the Soviet radar there was not the best
they had; what sorts of SAMs guarded which Soviet bases;
the Soviet view of Egyptian capabilities. A useful spy.
September
6: With that buzzing about
us, we had our conference to discuss the list of arms and equipment necessary
to Operation 41 that GHQ had compiled, with the assistance of our
Soviet advisers. Myself, Baghdadiy (Air Force); General
Muhammad `Aliy Fahmiy (Air Defense); General MamduwH Tuhamiy
(Chief of Operations); General `Umar Guwhar (Chief of Organization)
the inner core of GHQ were present. We agreed on the formidable list and
I delivered it toSadiq.
September
12: On the President's
orders, I called in General Shvartz, Assistant Chief Soviet
Adviser (General Okunev, Chief Soviet Adviser, was out of town),
to relate what we had learned about Soviet security from the Tanashi
Randopolo
case. "What Randopolo told Harris will no doubt
find its way to Israel," I said. "But to avoid damaging our
friendship with the Soviet Union, the President has decided to close the
case. We trust that, as friends, the Soviets will instruct their personnel
to exercise more vigilance to avoid such entanglements in the future. We
leave to you what action you take against the personnel already involved."
Shvartz
promised
immediate steps. Next day he told me all were to be sent home. As for Miss
Swain
Harris, the President ordered her release within days. Only
Tanashi Randopolo was left to pay the full price.
September
21: General `Abd al-Qadir
Hasan,
Vice Minister of War, flew to Moscow for preliminary negotiations for
an arms deal based upon the requirements of Operation 41 and valued
at 130 million rubles, approximately $195 million. With Hasan,
who was always the Egyptian representative in these negotiations with the
Soviets,
went our Chief of Organization, General `Umar Guwhar
October
8: The negotiations had gone
well. General Sadiq flew to Moscow to
sign the deal, returning on October 16.
October
17: A conference of senior
commanders to discuss the deal. Sadiq in the
chair. The Soviet
Union is to supply:
-
10 TU-16 bombers
with air-to-surface Missiles (ASM) capable of hitting ground targets
almost 95 miles away;
-
100 MIG-21FMs.
50 before the end of the year;
-
20 MIG-23s, to
be supplied during 1972 with Soviet pilots until they can be replaced by
Egyptians;
-
One brigade of QUADRAT,
the mobile SAM known in the West as SAM-6;
-
One 180mm artillery
battalion;
-
One 240mm mortar
battalion;
-
Three PMP bridges.
On
top of this the Soviets had agreed to massive assistance to Egypt's
own armaments industry. They would help us produce:
-
the 23mm twin-barrel,
anti-aircraft gun;
-
the AKM automatic
rifle; the RPG anti-tank rocket launcher;
-
plus assistance with
an enormous ammunition production program of our own: 23mm for the anti-aircraft
gun; 82mm for the B-10 rocket launcher; 120mm mortar
ammunition; 122mm for the M-30 gun; the same caliber for
the D-30; 130mm for the M-46; 152mm for the
howitzer; projectiles for the RPG; and RKG hand grenades.
The
Soviets themselves will bear the burden of constructing factories in Egypt
to supply certain other equipment and spares: a factory for spares for
the MIG-17, 114 MIG-21 and SU-7; a factory to make
drop tanks; one to produce B-15 radars; another to make the R-123
and
R-
124 tank radios.
On
operational matters the Soviet Defense Minister, Marshal Andrei. Grechko,
has agreed to an Egyptian request that the Soviet fighter squadrons already
based in Egypt should share our air defense as far east as a boundary 12
miles from the Egyptian-Israeli lines. (The local Soviet commander had
wanted to keep his operations west of the 32nd degree of longitude.)
Sadiq
told us he had asked the Soviets to manufacture the MI-24 helicopter
in Egypt too. The politicians turned down the request, but Grechko,
told him privately he would reconsider the point later.
November 4: The
President
called a conference of the inner circle of his military advisers: Sadiq,
myself, Hasan (Vice Minister), Baghdadiy (Air Force),
Fahmiy (Air Defense), Nasif (Presidential Guard), plus Okunev,
(Chief Soviet Adviser.) The President had three announcements:
-
ONE:
He had held a meeting of the National Security Council the day before and
ordered it to mobilize all the country's resources behind the forthcoming
assault.
-
TWO:
He was immediately assuming the title of Commander in Chief of the Armed
Forces.
-
THREE:On
November 11 he was proposing to declare that he withdraw his February
4 peace initiative, in which he had offered to re-open the canal under
certain conditions.
He
turned to General Okunev. "For your information," he said,
"I have informed the Americans that we are going to enter Sinai even
if we only have rifles." In response, Okunev could offer three items
of news. The TU-16s prolong the [six-month] cease-fire. I had answered
yes it could be extended in three monthly installments for a maximum of
a year. Yesterday I withdrew all that. Bergus asked me: 'Shall
I inform Washington that you have no confidence in us and will not deal
with us again unless Israel answers Ambassador Jarring's questionnaire?'
"
I said: "Yes."
"Mr.
Bergus then said to me: We know you now have the new TU-16 capable of
launching supersonic missiles. That weapons system is designed principally
against ships. The United States is therefore deeply concerned. We have
no choice but to see the introduction of this weapon as a significant factor
in the balance of power between us and the Soviet Union in the region.'
"
"I
told
Bergus
I am not about to declare war on the United States. But you must understand
that strikes against the interior of Egypt will now be met by strikes
against the interior of Israel. Instead of expressing concern, you should
be ashamed of yourselves. You supply Israel with Phantoms with which
they strike our heartland. But when I get a weapon to hit back, then and
only then do you express concern. Why?"
The
President went on: "Now the Americans have called General Dayan
to Washington. No doubt they will tell him all about our TU-16. My one
concern is that the enemy might launch a surprise attack when he learns.
For that reason, I request the Soviet Union to supply us with reconnaissance
over Sinai and Israel by M-500 and by satellite."
The
Air Force Commander, Baghdaadiy, had at one point broken into the President's
address to voice his fears that the TU-16 missiles were valueless.
His chief technical adviser had apparently told him their maximum speed
was only 750 miles per hour. In his view, anything slower than Mach
two was of little use. General Okunev replied that Baghdadiy's
information was wrong and gave the true performance figures. (I see no
reason to reveal a friendly power's military secrets, so I omit them here.)
Okunev
added, however, that the problem lay in training. The TU-16 navigators
needed 500 hours.
Now
Baghdadiy
raised
another problem: "The 50 MIG-21 MFs we were promised [in October] during
1971 will need three months to be prepared for the battle, so we trust
they will arrive as soon as possible. Nor is the workshop for their engine
maintenance ready. We hope the Soviet Union will take immediate action
to finish it." The President turned to the Soviet Ambassador: "I request
your excellency to ask the Soviet leadership to send what we have
agreed upon as soon as possible, and to let us know the expected dates
of arrival. I would also like work on the aircraft factory and the maintenance
workshop accelerated."
Our
relationship with the Soviet Union had never seemed more fruitful.
The October deal would give us the arms we needed. The Soviet
representatives
in Egypt were clearly anxious to smooth any problems. Feeling confident,
I left the conference to accompany the President on a tour of the
troops the special forces and units of the Second Army that same
day; then, after a night in al-‘Isma`iyliyah, we drove on
to see units of the Third Army, returning to Cairo on
November
20.
It
was time to look to our other allies, the Arab states around us. From November
21-26, I met the Chiefs of Staff of all the Arab armed forces, to prepare
the ground for my first meeting with the Arab Collective Defense Council
at the end of November. What I did not anticipate was that
this Arab Collective Defense Council meeting, besides being crucial
in our search for reinforcements, would mark also the opening of the rift
between General Sadiq and myself.

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